When calculating the Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) provisions the following should be considered:

1. There shall be sufficient data available with the Company to facilitate the IBNR calculation. The Company's management shall be responsible to certify the completeness, appropriateness and accuracy of the insurance data to be used for the calculation of the IBNR.
    
2. The Company will use actuarial methods that are applicable depending on size, scale and complexity of business. The Actuary shall provide adequate explanation to the methods adopted and the methods should be consistent from year to year. In case the Actuary decides to change the methods previously adopted and this methodology change has a material impact on results, sufficient explanation on the reason and impact needs to be provided to the Authority. The Authority reserves the right to ask for additional explanation and information for the change in methods adopted.

Estimation of Incurred But Not Reported provisions (IBNR)

1. These instructions are relevant to determination of IBNR provisions for direct insurance and facultative reinsurance accepted business. Estimation of IBNR provisions on treaty accepted and Excess of Loss accepted business may require other methods more appropriate to the nature of the portfolio and its claims development pattern. Likewise, estimation of IBNR provisions for specialized business such as credit guarantee insurance may require other methods more appropriate to the nature of the business.
    
2. In these instructions, the term IBNR covers both provisions for claims not yet reported (Incurred But Not Yet Reported or IBNYR) as well as incomplete provisions for reported claims (Incurred But Not Enough Reported or IBNER). It is not necessary to establish separate provisions for IBNYR and for IBNER so long as the method(s) used will take into account both elements.
    
3. The method stated in these instructions is the “preferred method” and is generally suitable to estimate the IBNR provision. If the Actuary considers the method stated in these instructions to be not suitable, he should set out the reasons for such conclusion and provide justification for the alternative method(s) proposed to be used, being considered more appropriate. Where the method(s) used is not one of the well-known methods, the Actuary should also describe the method(s) and the underlying assumptions in that method(s).
    
4. All mathematical methods of estimation are based on a set of assumptions. So, the validity of the assumptions underlying the method proposed to be used should be fully set out and validated sufficiently to lend credibility to the exercise.
    
5. Calculation of the provision for IBNR should be done separately for each year of occurrence or year of underwriting and the figures should be aggregated to arrive at the total amount to be provided.
    
6. The calculation of the ALAE provision can be included with the loss provision, but when calculated separately the same level of detail in terms of method(s) used, validation of assumptions, estimation by year, etc. as described above for loss provisions should be done for the ALAE provisions. The calculation of the ULAE provision is generally done with simpler, yet actuarially sound, methods.

Examination and validation of basic data

1. The Actuary should apply such checks as practically possible to assess the quality and completeness of the data to improve the accuracy of the IBNR provision estimates.
    
2. Data should be examined separately for each of the classes set out in the instruction notes. If data of any class is aggregated with data for another class, care should be taken to see that the two classes are homogeneous in nature.
    
3. The Actuary should examine the changes in underwriting policy over the period of observation and in particular, the changes made in current underwriting policy. The impact of such changes on the claims development pattern and claims ratio should be estimated if appropriate.
    
4. The Actuary should examine the development of premium written over recent years. If the average level of deductible has undergone material change over the recent years, its impact on the claims development pattern should be taken into account.
    
5. The compilation of data on an underwriting period basis instead of a period of occurrence (accident period) basis may be proposed in some cases. Where this basis is followed the Actuary should support the reason for change of basis on objective reasons.

Claims handling

1. A detailed review of the claims handling practices should be conducted. Where material changes are identified, their impact on the claims development pattern should be taken into account.
    
2. Each claim is to be recognized upon occurrence of the insured event. The way this is implemented in practice may differ from one company to another, but it should include various claim transactions and reserves for the estimated liability on a case by case basis (case reserves). The impact of inadequate provision for claims on claims development can be significant and should be taken into account.
    
3. In addition to recognition of claims, which the Company follow to determine the provision to be made and the mechanism to review such provision, the Company has the responsibility toward having prompt and fair settlement related to the claims. The Company may sell or accept the collectable returns as a part of the settlement and include the practice of downsizing the claims provision in cases where there has been no movement in the claim over a certain period, which may be important factors in claims development.
    
4. The Company should consider that claim development patterns can be materially affected by the occurrence of unusual events over the period of observation such as:
    
   1. Individual large claims;
       
   2. Catastrophic events causing a large number of claims;
       
   3. Changes in Law affecting the incidence and size of claims;
       
   4. Impact of external factors on the average size of claims; and
       
   5. Judicial changes related to accrued compensation
        
5. When estimating IBNR after adjustment for reinsurers' share, note should be taken of any changes in reinsurance protections and changes in size of retentions over recent years.

Claims cost trends

1. In order to make adequate adjustment for trends, the following aspects should be studied:
    
   1. Composition of portfolio;
       
   2. External factors such as economic environment, inflation, changes in legal, political or social conditions;
       
   3. The underwriting policy of the Company; and
       
   4. Changes in the Company's claim settlement practices.
       
2. A significant indicator of claims experience trends is the frequency of claims occurrence and the average size per claim paid and per claim outstanding. These should be studied and any variations observed should be looked into.

Test of credibility

1. To ensure completeness of IBNR provision estimation, tests of credibility for the results produced should be applied including, evaluating the frequency of claims occurrence, ultimate incurred loss ratios, average cost per claim paid and per claim outstanding, etc.
    
2. It is generally inappropriate to accept any negative values for the IBNR provision in total. To avoid such a situation, estimation of IBNR should be made separately for each year of occurrence. Negative values of IBNR for any year can be allowed where it is actuarially justified based on the nature of the risk, claims practices and historic development trends. The actuary must include a detailed description of the reasons for including negative IBNR in total for any type of business. While negative IBNR in total for a type of business may be appropriate if actuarially justified and documented, the negative IBNR shall not be an Admissible Asset.
    
3. An essential check on the credibility of the estimation exercise is to see how the claims developed during the preceding twelve months as compared to the projection and estimation made last year. The outstanding claims provision and provision for IBNR made at the last Balance Sheet date should be compared with the aggregate of claims paid during the year, claims outstanding and the provision for IBNR at the end of the current year, for the years of occurrence up to and including the date of the last Balance Sheet.
    
4. When estimation methods produce less reliable results for the most recent years, the results for the more recent years may need to be revised based on the Actuary's knowledge of the business and the Company's portfolio.