The objective of the correlation analysis is to assess the strength of the relationship between (i) each of the transformed dependent variable (e.g. PD) and (ii) each of the transformed macro variables, on a bilateral basis. Consequently such univariate analysis should be performed for each obligor segment. This analysis should include both statistical and causality perspectives. Relationships should make economic sense and meet business intuitions.
5.6.2
Institutions should pay attention to the strength and sign of correlations (positive vs. negative relationships) and assess whether they meet business intuitions. At a minimum, the following components should be documented: (i) the top macro variables ranked by correlation strength and (ii) comments and analysis on the observed statistical relationships vs. expected business intuitions.
5.6.3
A cut-off should be establish to eliminate the transformed macro variables that display weak and/or incoherent correlations with the independent variables. This reduced population of transformed macro variables should be used to perform multivariate analysis.